The National Market:
Slow growth and flattening prices seem to dominate the real estate news stories today. Home price appreciation is still positive in many markets but at a slower pace. Zillow reported earlier that 2025 average U.S. home values are rising at a pace of 0.1%. Most reliable forecasters place that estimate at something closer to 2%. So we are not seeing a boom, we are not seeing a crash — more of a “cooled down and steady” environment.

Many U.S. markets are seeing rising inventory levels and slower sales activity. Pending sales and new-home sales remain sluggish in many markets, but the trajectory is improving. Buyer activity is on the rise. In August, pending home sales rose 4.0% vs. July. Because “pending” contracts precede closed sales, this is an early signal of rising buyer demand.

The Local Market:  
Buyer activity across the Emerald Coast continues to trend upward, supported by increased inventory and a more balanced pace of sales. September 2025 data:

Single-Family Homes: About 8.0 months of inventory (240 days). Recent sales averaged 109 days on market and closed at 95% of asking price, reflecting steady buyer confidence.

Condos: Roughly 11.2 months of inventory (336 days). Sold units averaged 365 days on market, also achieving 95% of list price, as buyers take advantage of broader choices. For proper perspective, September was an anomaly in terms of days-on-market. The Y-T-D number is 201.

Residential Lots: Approximately 20.2 months of inventory (606 days). Closings averaged 194 days on market and 91% of asking price, showing continuing investor and builder interest.

With an estimated 68% of homes owned free and clear or holding more than 50% equity, the Emerald Coast market remains fundamentally strong and well-positioned for sustained growth.

A summary of September Average Sold Prices:

                                                             Single Family                    Condo
30-A                                                 $2,722,977   (84)         $1,520,833   (24)                                   
Destin/Miramar Beach                $1,335,210   (48)         $   710,075   (88)
Ft. Walton Beach                           $   415,327   (71)         $   300,125     (8)      

Ed Sez: Why price matters? Consider that today’s buyers are informed, patient, and picky — but they’re still buying. A smart price isn’t surrender; it’s sound financial strategy. Nail it now, and you’ll be sailing toward sold while others are still waiting for the wind to change.

Ed & Terri Smith

RE/MAX Coastal Properties

Selling Emerald Coast Real Estate Since 1987!

Inlet Beach - 30A - Santa Rosa Beach - Miramar Beach - Destin - Fort Walton Beach 

The National Market:
Fannie Mae projects that mortgage interest rates will decline gradually over the next several months and continue trending downward through the end of 2026.

While the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut short-term interest rates next week, those cuts do not immediately translate into lower mortgage rates. Mortgage rates move independently, reacting instead to daily shifts in the bond market.

Both the Fed and the bond market respond to the same underlying economic signals—inflation, employment, and overall economic growth. The key difference:

The Fed meets roughly every six weeks to adjust policy. The bond market digests new economic data instantly, meaning mortgage rates can change daily, even hourly.

The bottom line ... Fed policy direction absolutely matters, but mortgage rates are ultimately shaped by real-time investors in the bond market.

The Local Market:  August 2025 vs. August 2024

Single Family Homes
Inventory: Homes for sale rose slightly, from 1,751 to 1,808 (+57).
Sales Volume: Closings increased from 214 to 226 (+12).
Average Sold Price: Fell sharply from  $2,065,340 to $1,394,518 (-670,822).
Note: The high-end luxury segment is a key driver of that decline.

Condos
Inventory: Condos for sale edged down slightly, from 1,400 to 1,380 (-20).
Sales Volume: Closed sales nudged up from 96 to 101 (+5).
Average Sold Price: Softened modestly, from $777,984 to $742,785 (-$35,199).

A summary of August Average Sold Prices:

                                                                 Single Family                      Condo
30-A                                                     $2,432,467   (81)           $1,289,250   (16)                                   
Destin/Miramar Beach                    $1,335,210   (48)           $    705,650   (72)
Ft. Walton Beach                               $   374,816   (63)           $    275,886   (13)      

Ed Sez:  The official mortgage rate on a 30 year fixed today is 6.29%. Some lenders are now quoting rates as low as 5 5/8. Just in time for Christmas!!

Ed & Terri Smith

RE/MAX Coastal Properties

Selling Emerald Coast Real Estate Since 1987!

Inlet Beach - 30A - Santa Rosa Beach - Miramar Beach - Destin - Fort Walton Beach 

The National Market:
According to NAR economists, a drop in mortgage rates to 6% would make homeownership attainable for roughly 5.5 million additional households. Many analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut the Fed Funds rate four to six times over the next 12–18 months, a move that could strengthen the bond market and, in turn, help push mortgage rates lower. At the same time, nearly 30% of existing-home sales nationwide are all-cash transactions — a historically high share that underscores the depth of demand from buyers less affected by interest rate swings.

For now, the outlook for homeowners remains strong. Even with lackluster sales activity, prices continue to rise, delivering steady gains in property appreciation.

The Local Market:
Online activity is trending upward, which includes both inquiries and real estate search data. Curiously, we are seeing a surge in interest from Michigan, Ohio, and Illinois. Increased online engagement has been a leading indicator of stronger sales activity to come. Very positive!

•    Single Family Homes: 7.1 months of inventory | 112 Days-on-Market to close.
      Closed sales averaged 96% of asking price.

•    Condos: 12.9 months of inventory | 185 Days-on-Market to close
      Closed sales averaged 96% of asking price.
 
A summary of July Average Sold Prices:

                                           Single Family          Condo

30-A                                                      $2,322,267   (81)              $1,694,888   (16)                                   

Destin/Miramar Beach                     $1,566,248   (46)              $   708,125    (76)

Ft. Walton Beach                                $   453,032   (98)              $   459,468    (19)  

Ed Sez:  The fourth quarter is often our strongest of the year, as more serious buyers visit once the tourist season winds down. We anticipate an uptick in pending sales in the months ahead.

Ed & Terri Smith

RE/MAX Coastal Properties

Selling Emerald Coast Real Estate Since 1987!

Inlet Beach - 30A - Santa Rosa Beach - Miramar Beach - Destin - Fort Walton Beach

Multiple rate cuts by the Fed and cooling inflation should make mortgage rates lower, right? Not really. Mortgage interest rates remain high because they are dictated by the 10-year Treasury bond, not the Fed's overnight lending rate. The Fed’s “short term” rate influences consumer-side short term lending rates, like car loans, lines of credit and credit cards.

The 30 year mortgage rate is the result of investor appetite at a given time. The bond market is sensitive to current and future inflation, global unrest, national debt, labor market and overall economic strength. The 10-year Treasury bond yield, plus a markup – the spread – determines long term mortgage rates. When investors are optimistic, bond demand rises which drives down the rates, which drives down mortgage interest rates.

You may recall that during the pandemic, the Fed was buying vast quantities of MBS (mortgage-backed securities), which created high demand and kept rates low. As part of its “quantitative easing program” the Fed was purchasing up to $40 billion per month. By the time the purchases ended in March 2022, the Fed had bought a total of about $1.33 trillion in MBS. Without competition from the Fed, private investors are setting the price, demanding higher returns for the same risk.

It is extremely unlikely that we will see the market return to the days of 3%. Maybe. Some day. No time soon. Buyers are slowly returning to the market as they come to accept that putting off that waiting for rates to decline another half point is not furthering their life goals.

Questions? Email or call us anytime!  ed@floridabrokers.com
850-837-5500

Ed and Terri Smith

The National Market:
The spending bill that passed both the House and Senate last week delivered several significant wins for real estate. Notably: 1) a temporary (five-year) quadrupling of the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap; 2) protection for business SALT deductions and 1031 like-kind exchanges; and 3) a permanent extension of the mortgage interest deduction.

Florida is considering capping or even eliminating real estate property taxes altogether. It’s too soon to know how this could realistically unfold, but the idea is certainly appealing!

The Local Market:
Single Family Home sales continue to outperform Condo sales. Destin/Miramar saw a bump in condo units sold, the result of new construction closings at Seascape Resort. The absorption rates (months of inventory) are still high across Okaloosa, Walton and Bay counties:

•   Single Family Homes: 8.3 months of inventory | 118 Days-on-Market to close.
     Closed sales averaged 96% of asking price.

•   Condos: 12.0 months of inventory | 208 Days-on-Market to close
      Closed sales averaged 95% of asking price.
 
A summary of June Average Sold Prices:

                                     Single Family       Condo

30-A                                             $2,017,779   (78)            $1,129,864   (11)                                   
Destin/Miramar Beach            $1,207,460   (53)            $    782,843   (81)
Ft. Walton Beach                       $   460,820   (80)           $    444,024   (32)       

Ed Sez:  Greater bond market stability and anticipated reductions in the Fed funds rate will go a long way in giving the real estate market a much-needed boost this year.   

A lower Fed Funds rate typically eases overall financial conditions, increases consumer confidence, and encourages investment in housing. 

Ed & Terri Smith

RE/MAX Coastal Properties

Selling Emerald Coast Real Estate Since 1987!

Inlet Beach - 30A - Santa Rosa Beach - Miramar Beach - Destin - Fort Walton Beach 

The National Market:
The total value of homes for sale across the U.S. has surged to an unprecedented $700 billion—an all-time high. Despite the surge in inventory, millions of prospective buyers remain on the sidelines, mostly constrained by the usual suspects, specifically, high mortgage interest rates, escalating property taxes and insurance.

Notably, $331 billion worth of active listings—representing approximately 44% of all homes on the market—have been sitting for over 60 days, the highest days-on-market level since 2020. Yet despite this growing inventory stagnation, leading forecasters still anticipate national home price growth of 3–4% in 2025. One truth remains: if extended days on market go unmitigated, downward pressure on prices is inevitable. It's Economics 101.

The Local Market:
Single Family Home sales continue to outperform Condo sales. The absorption rates (months of inventory) are still high across Okaloosa, Walton and Bay counties:

•   Single Family Homes: 8.5 months of inventory | 98 Days-on-Market to close.
     Closed sales averaged 96% of asking price.

•   Condos: 15.8 months of inventory | 213 Days-on-Market to close
      Closed sales averaged 95% of asking price.
 
A summary of May Average Sold Prices:

                                     Single Family       Condo

30-A                                             $2,592,348                   $1,500,794                                   
Destin/Miramar Beach            $1,099,544                   $   567,876                     
Ft. Walton Beach                      $    421,571                   $   506,232       

Ed Sez:  Historically, higher inventory levels are linked to longer marketing times and downward pressure on pricing. While we are seeing a definite uptick in days on market, the sales-to-list price ratios remain surprisingly resilient—a sign that pricing expectations haven't collapsed, even in a slower-moving environment.

Ed & Terri Smith

RE/MAX Coastal Properties

Selling Emerald Coast Real Estate Since 1987!

Inlet Beach - 30A - Santa Rosa Beach - Miramar Beach - Destin - Fort Walton Beach 

The National Market:
The old journalism adage—“If it bleeds, it leads”—may help explain why 70% of Americans fear a housing crash in 2025, according to a recent survey. Yet, year after year, doom-and-gloom predictions rarely materialize. Like a stopped clock, the pessimists occasionally get it right—just not often.

In reality, the fundamentals remain strong. Home equity levels are solid as prices have increased 57% over the past five years. Meanwhile, inventory levels are rising, giving buyers more options. With interest rates expected to trend lower and the Federal Reserve likely to approve three rate cuts in 2025, the housing market appears poised for continued stability—not collapse.

The Local Market:
Year-to-date home and condo sales—measured by units sold—are still down across Okaloosa, Walton and Bay counties. However, key indicators suggest momentum is improving.

•  Single-Family Homes: 8.5 months of inventory | 137 Days-on-Market to close

•  Condos: 15.6 months of inventory | 151 Days-on-Market to close

While higher inventory benefits buyers, these figures also signal greater opportunity and movement—early signs of a market gradually finding its footing.

A summary of April Average Sold Prices:

                                                            Single Family                 Condo

30-A                                                    $2,570,771               $   629,818                                  
Destin/Miramar Beach                   $1,140,142               $   618,358                     
Ft. Walton Beach                              $   383,262               $   426,498      

Ed Sez:  According to mortgage giant Freddie Mac, “We expect the pace of housing price appreciation to moderate, while still maintaining a positive trajectory”.

Ed & Terri Smith
Kay, Denis and Mary
Making Business a Pleasure ℠

The National Market:
For now, the general consensus for 2025 suggests mortgage interest rates will hover in the 6-6.5% range, with annual real estate appreciation projected at 3-4%. However, these forecasts remain subject to change as new economic data emerges. In resort markets like ours, consumer confidence plays a pivotal role in shaping market trends. Given its largely discretionary nature, the performance of resort markets across the nation more closely aligns with luxury sectors such as yacht sales.

The Local Market:
Compared to last year, home and condo sales—measured by the number of units sold—remain down across Bay, Okaloosa, and Walton counties. However, the trend is beginning to stabilize. When markets recover, they do so gradually rather than experiencing a sudden surge.

Days-on-Market (DOM) and Absorption Rate reflect the strength of a given market. While lower numbers favor sellers, the higher numbers give buyers more leverage.

Our current analysis shows improving trends:

•  8.6 months of inventory and 137 Days-on-Market  for single-family homes

•  18.6 months of inventory and 168 Days-on-Market for condos

Expect these numbers to improve in the coming months as buyer demand increases.

A summary of February Average Sold Prices:

                                       Single Family       Condo

30-A                                                       $2,473,051                 $   718,208                                 
Destin/Miramar Beach                      $1,116,312                 $   699,664                    
Ft. Walton Beach                                 $   463,811                 $   466,267      

Ed Sez: Both buyer and seller participation will strengthen as consumers adjust to the new market norms. While mortgage interest rates are expected to decline, a return to 3% rates is not yet on the horizon.

Ed & Terri Smith
Kay, Denis and Mary
“Making Business a Pleasure” ℠

Attached is our February 2025 Monthly Newsletter. While high mortgage interest rates persist, indicators are that the spring season will see significant improvement in buyer activity. Competitively priced homes and condos in our market continue to sell within 95-120 days, which is historically considered very reasonable.

As always, please call, text or email us anytime for more information!

The National Market:

From a historical perspective, mortgage interest rates are far from reaching a “slam on the brakes” moment. Buyers are in more of an “ease off the accelerator” phase of this economic cycle. Despite this, nearly 90% of metro areas in the U.S. saw home price increases in the final quarter of 2024, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The big picture? Buyers who need to purchase are moving forward, but with adjusted expectations—choosing $850,000 homes instead of million-dollar properties. Meanwhile, discretionary buyers remain active, many of whom are paying cash.

The Local Market

New buyer activity is on the rise. Since December, online searches and inquiries have jumped 37%, a strong indicator of increased market momentum.

Compared to last year, home sales are down across Bay, Okaloosa, and Walton counties—except for single-family home sales in Walton County, which saw a 15.8% increase.

Market strength isn’t just about Days-on-Market (DOM)—the time it takes to sell a home—but also about Absorption Rate, which reflects the number of months’ worth of supply in a given market. Lower numbers favor sellers, while higher numbers give buyers more leverage.

Currently, our analysis shows:

• 8.9 months of inventory for single-family homes

• 24.1 months of inventory for condos

Expect these numbers to improve in the coming months as buyer demand increases.

A summary of January Average Sold Prices:

                                         Single Family     Condo

30-A                                                         $2,242,224              $1,831,056                                
Destin/Miramar Beach                        $1,390,570               $   874,956                   
Ft. Walton Beach                                   $   448,852              $   360,688     

May your Valentine’s Day wishes come true!!

Ed & Terri Smith
Kay, Denis and Mary

The National Market:

Mortgage interest rate levels continue to hamper real estate sales. Last week’s 10-year Note Auction did not provide any relief, but the subsequent 30-year Bond Auction performed better. It’s a mixed bag. Mortgage interest rates are still expected to decline over the course of the year.

Nationally, the inventory of homes for sale has been on a downward trajectory. Available inventory has actually declined by 8.6% since October 2024. From 953,000 units to 871,000 units for sale. This bucks previous trends wherein inventory levels tend to rise in lean markets. A much clearer picture should develop by February.

The Local Market:

The first quarter here often sees a good spurt of growth as many buyers wish to purchase in time to be prepared for the spring vacation rental season.  Although not as strong as in some years, we are seeing improving numbers in terms of online and in-person buyer activity.

Locally, SFH (Single Family Home) inventory levels have declined by 11.2% since October. Year over year, SFH sales (in terms of units sold) have declined by 6.9%. Condo inventory levels have increased by 8.5% in that same period. Y-T-D condo sales have declined by 23.5%, much the result of increased insurance costs and statutorily mandated engineering inspections. 

Regardless, the properties here which are being aggressively marketed and properly priced continue to sell. Average DOM (Days-On-Market) for sold Single Family Homes in December was 124.  Average Days-On-Market for the Active yet-to-be sold homes stands at 194, and counting. Expired SFH average was 228 DOM before dropping out of the system. Sold condos averaged 129 DOM. The yet-to-be sold condos averaged 267 DOM and counting. Expired condos averaged 250 DOM before dropping out of the system.

Ed Sez: Unlike smoke which rises and never falls, the real estate market waggles, wiggles and wobbles. Today we are standing on the beach facing a rising tide. Low inventory, short Days-On-Market and values that are holding up well. The 2025 prognosis is good!

A summary of December Average Sold Prices:

                                                                 Single Family                     Condo

30-A                                                          $2,327,925                   $1,848,200                               
Destin/Miramar Beach                         $1,201,878                   $   855,925                  
Ft. Walton Beach                                    $   371,411                   $   443,227    

Ed & Terri Smith
Kay, Denis and Mary